A decade after the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that split the country and caused disorder, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That represents the warning from two prominent writers from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially tense and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can build support swiftly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our islands remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Intends to Provoke Discussion
The team have studied the political, economic and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the issue with a tour of public talks that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns all parties, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose implications have remained undefined because then you land with an extremely polarised community where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side are uncertain exactly what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue such a time is looming, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and unionists minimise the likelihood, leaving it unclear whether or when there might be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unification has obscured the absence of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"Many are for or against the notion but the actual thinking which may surpass that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has taken place in universities but very few government figures or advocates are willing to participate with even the basics. To illustrate, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, none of the commentators advocates unity or the status quo. They writes two pieces that aim for objectivity in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling financial and societal data, previous instances and constitutional models.
Discussions cover national emblems, levies, medical care, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of loyalist violence. The aim is to inform and stimulate dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there has not yet occurred a debate," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an recognition of the idea that there could be good arguments on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate claim they prefer unity but refuse paying higher taxes or introducing a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government should establish what the proposal from nationalist groups is other than just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride thinks a national vote in his era is probable and that it could happen unexpectedly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a feckless official who declares: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified arguments, he commented. "Somebody will prevail here and the other side will eventually not succeed but both parties has has valuable insights to gain from the alternative arguments."
Appeal for Broader Dialogue
Westminster should join the discussion, said the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish issue."
